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Thursday, March 26, 2015

Putin is making Greece's Nazi problem worse - Business Insider

Putin is making Greece's Nazi problem worse - Business Insider

Peter Spiegel "... Greek bank run loomed before bailout extension deal"

Data show how Greek bank run loomed before bailout extension deal

Satyajit Das : "My Big Fat Greek Crisis"

EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » My Big Fat Greek Crisis

The Syriza led government claims the moral high ground.  ...  But this ignores earlier actions at the heart of current problems. Greece has been on a long borrowing binge that fuelled consumption and government spending.

Mohamed El-Erian : "Missteps and miscalculations that could cost Greece the euro" - FT.com

Missteps and miscalculations that could cost Greece the euro - FT.com

Despite having lots of the economic logic on their side, the newly-elected Greek government is slipping further behind in its goal of restoring economic dynamism, jobs and financial viability. As a result, both Greece and its European partners risk losing control of the one thing they seem to unanimously agree on — namely, maintaining the country within the eurozone. Understanding the five main reasons why this is happening also sheds light on what needs to be done.

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Greece slides towards the euro trapdoor - FT.com

Greece slides towards the euro trapdoor - FT.com

Greece Continues That Slide Towards Grexident - Forbes

Greece Continues That Slide Towards Grexident - Forbes

"...everything being done by the Greeks appears to be making this (ss.a grexit) more likely. At which point one really does have to start wondering, well, is this actually being done by mistake or not? For it’s long been known that various of the Syriza people, the finance minister Varoufakis among them, privately think that they simply will not be able to reform the Greek economy as they wish to while inside the euro system."

Biggest threat to the euro? The clowns who run Greece - MarketWatch

Biggest threat to the euro? The clowns who run Greece - MarketWatch

Bond Markets Bet on Grexit - Bloomberg View

Bond Markets Bet on Grexit - Bloomberg View

Greece financial crisis: EU offers funds in return for urgent reforms | Business | The Guardian

Greece financial crisis: EU offers funds in return for urgent reforms | Business | The Guardian

"... he (Tsipras) started the negotiations by making it clear he expected urgently needed bailout funds released without giving very much in return.
According to the account, he was disabused of that notion within 10 minutes ..."
"...According to senior officials in Brussels... Draghi was said to have read Tsipras the riot act, while the others demanded cooperation with the creditors."
"In their public appearances following the summit on Friday afternoon, Merkel and Tsipras said contrasting things. Tsipras emphasised Merkel had accepted that the old bailout terms were history. The German leader, in turn, stressed a eurozone-conducted audit of Greek reforms, what had been done and what remained to be done to meet the terms of the bailout, remained the basis of the rescue programme."
From Reuters Merkel sets strict terms for Greek aid
"The agreement of Feb. 20 is still valid in its entirety. Every paragraph of the agreement counts," Merkel told German journalists who questioned whether she was now offering cash for promises that many of her supporters have stopped believing in.
Tsipras appeared to differ. "It is clear that Greece is not obliged to implement recessionary measures," he said. "Greece will submit its own structural reforms which it will implement."





Thursday, March 19, 2015

T.Giannitsis, St.Zografakis : "GREECE: Solidarity and Adjustment in Times of crisis"

www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_study_38_2015.pdf

The findings suggest that pauperisation hit large parts of the society, that policies had very differentiated effects on different groups and that, therefore, average values obscure contrasting changes in inequality regarding particular sub-groups, that during the crisis all income classes comprise winners and losers.....
H Δημοσιονομική "Επιδείνωση" (2006-2009) ωφείλεται στην Αύξηση Δαπανών κατά 77% και στην Μείωση των Εσόδων κατά 20% !  Η Δημ/κή "Διόρθωση" προήλθε από Αύξηση Εσόδων κατά 72% !!!

"Τί πάντως λέει η μελέτη μας" :ΜΕΤΑΡΡΥΘΜΙΣΗ 9/04/15

Lambros Fatsis – "Greece must put aside divisive rhetoric if a solution to the country’s crisis is to be found"

EUROPP – Greece must put aside divisive rhetoric if a solution to the country’s crisis is to be found

In tracing the origins of political dispute in Greece however, we discover something more than a conciliatory deficit. We come face to face with a pronounced hostility towards rational argument and critique. Without it we can only speak from encamped positions which forebode, if not forbid, independent judgement while also sabotaging our ability to listen, let alone see, clearly.

Does Greece want to get 'kicked out' of euro zone?

Does Greece want to get 'kicked out' of euro zone?

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Will this time be different for Greece? Miroslav Beblavý CEPS

Will this time be different for Greece? How to assess its ability to deliver on the reform agenda | The Centre for European Policy Studies

...the author presents a simple analytical framework that can be used to assess the likelihood that a government will deliver on its reform agenda. Its purpose is not to allow for a precise probabilistic calculation, but to enable better structuring of the knowledge we have. It emphasises that the change depends NOT only on the capacity of the state to design and deliver policies, but even more crucially on state autonomy from both illegitimate and legitimate interests and cognitive models used by policy-makers to make sense of the world.

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Eurozone debt, bailouts and contagion | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Eurozone debt, bailouts and contagion | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Why We Reject Facts & Embrace Conflict | RealClearScience

Why We Reject Facts & Embrace Conflict | RealClearScience

There is a growing body of research suggesting that when beliefs become tied to one’s sense of identity, they are not easily revised. Instead, when these axioms are threatened, people look for ways to outright dismiss inconvenient data. If this cannot be achieved by highlighting logical, methodological or factual errors, the typical response is to leave the empirical sphere altogetherand elevate the discussion into the moral and ideological domain, whose tenets are much more difficult to outright falsify (generally evoking whatever moral framework best suits one’s rhetorical needs).
I Don’t Want to Be Right 

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Greek Alternative Reality Clashes With Euro Area Losing Patience - Bloomberg Business

Greek Alternative Reality Clashes With Euro Area Losing Patience - Bloomberg Business

“I believe that we are doing our job properly,” Varoufakis said at the conclusion of Monday’s talks. “Our job is to start the process which is necessary for the European Central Bank to have confidence.”
...

“If it carries on like this, it’s a road to a car crash,” Andrew Lynch, a money manager at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in London, told Bloomberg Television. “Both sides need to stop the posturing and get a deal done as quickly as possible because otherwise you just get to a stage where accidents can happen, and accidents at this stage could be very serious.” 

Draghi Urged Greece to Allow Officials Back Before It’s Too Late - Bloomberg Business

Draghi Urged Greece to Allow Officials Back Before It’s Too Late - Bloomberg Business

Draghi’s Deal

As Draghi pressed Varoufakis to accept the return of the troika officials, the minister said that the idea that Greece was opposed to such a move was a misunderstanding, according to one of the officials with direct knowledge of the exchange.
Can they start soon? Draghi asked.
Varoufakis agreed.
Wednesday?
And the deal was done.

Monday, March 9, 2015

Eight lessons (on negotiations with the EU/EZ) from Syriza | Open Europe

Eight lessons for David Cameron from Syriza | Open Europe



  1. Mind your language: Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis may be fun, but his controversial running commentary – “fiscal waterboarding”, 
  2. Don’t negotiate via the media: Syriza – like Number 10 up until recently – has a tendency to write the headline first, and the content later
  3. Beware of shopping lists: At least premature ones. Syriza has been forced to climb down on a series of specific election 
  4. Know the incentives of your partners: Syriza’s gamble on austerity fatigue translating into support from other countries totally mis-judged the politics 
  5. Prepare the ground: In turn, for that to work, as David Frost noted in his pamphlet for Open Europe, the key is to convince others that what you’re asking for is the ‘normal’ – not an eccentric demand
  6. A marathon, not a sprint: Fundamental change takes time. As Tsipras may have concluded by now, you cannot make 22 EU leaders discard their ties over-night (only five of the 28 are women). Syriza was naïve in believing it could change so much in such a short period of time. 
  7.  Noy you or Berlin: If you force others to choose between you and Germany, then, as Gary Lineker may have put it, EU negotiations become a very simple game: in the end, Germany wins. Agree the contours of the deal with Berlin 
  8. Don’t mention the war: Just don’t.

Tsipras urged to “stop wasting time” ahead of meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels

Europe’s QE Quandary - QuickTake - Bloomberg

Europe’s QE Quandary - QuickTake - Bloomberg

SS. Lest we forget: Mario Draghi called on Angela Merkel about a week before announcing QE.

J.W. Mason : "The Enduring Logic of Austerity" | Jacobin

The Enduring Logic of Austerity | Jacobin

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Greece vs. Germany: Two Competing National Narratives - WSJ

Greece vs. Germany: Two Competing National Narratives - WSJ

The Troubles that Await Europe | RealClearWorld

The Troubles that Await Europe | RealClearWorld

The events of recent weeks have done absolutely nothing to improve the personal ties between the Greek government and its European counterparts. Grandstanding, mutual accusations of bad faith, and needlessly confrontational politics have eroded much political goodwill. This is likely to make the coming talks even thornier than those that recently concluded.

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Roundtable Discussion on the Greece Crisis - SPIEGEL ONLINE

SPIEGEL Roundtable Discussion on the Greece Crisis - SPIEGEL ONLINE

David Beckworth : The Origins of the Eurozone Monetary Policy Crisis...

Macro and Other Market Musings: The Origins of the Eurozone Monetary Policy Crisis...: I made the case in my last post that the Eurozone crisis was largely a monetary policy crisis. That is, had the ECB lowered interest rates...



All of this points to the Eurozone monetary crisis being the product of a poorly designed currency union. It is, in other words, far from being an optimal currency area. From this perspective, the monetary policy crisis in Europe can be thought as a structural crisis that is not going to go away anytime soon.