d papagiannopoulos: April 2015

Monday, April 27, 2015

Concluding remarks

The problem is that European authorities are bound to find it politically impossible to give in, ditch the pre-existing agreement and abandon conditionality. Economically, they also face a conflict of interest. About 80% of the Greek debt is now owed to officials, the European authorities and the IMF. The official rhetoric is that “we have done enough for Greece”.

So far, however, the Europeans have not made any present to Greece,² only loans, initially on harsh financial conditions, then sweetened. A default would turn the loans into presents. Making it possible for Greece to comfortably default does not seem appealing at all.

National governments are elected by their citizens so they are most unlikely to act to prevent a Grexit. One more time, we have to turn to the ECB, whose essential mandate is to uphold the Eurozone.

It may be unfair, but the ECB’s duty is to announce very soon that it will do whatever it takes to keep the Eurozone whole.

Friday, April 24, 2015

Varoufakis said to be called gambler, time-waster in meeting

ekathimerini.com | Varoufakis said to be called gambler, time-waster in meeting

Euro-area finance chiefs said Varoufakis’s handling of the talks was irresponsible and accused him of being a time-waster, a gambler and an amateur, one of the people said. Another said the Greek complained of the hostile atmosphere in the meeting, as he was criticized from all sides. A Greek official in Riga, Latvia, for the meeting wasn’t able to comment on the talks when reached by phone.

Friday April 24, 2015 (13:57)

Χμ! Είναι 18:10 και δέν βρίσκω την ανταπόκριση στην Ελληνική έκδοση!!!!

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Yanis Varoufakis : "A New Deal for Greece"

Greece’s tax system needs to be revamped, and the revenue authorities must be freed from political and corporate influence. The pension system is ailing. The economy’s credit circuits are broken. The labor market has been devastated by the crisis and is deeply segmented, with productivity growth stalled. Public administration is in urgent need of modernization, and public resources must be used more efficiently. Overwhelming obstacles block the formation of new companies. Competition in product markets is far too circumscribed. And inequality has reached outrageous levels, preventing society from uniting behind essential reforms.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-debt-deal-by-yanis-varoufakis-2015-04#07pqOdBQdwKEs1Tv.99

Ireland’s Lessons for Greece by Michael Heise - Project Syndicate

Greek Update: Alexis's Choice : Holger Schmieding, Berenberg Bank

If it can’t go on like this, it won’t. At some point in the next 3-5 weeks, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras will have to make the tough choice: does he want to go down in history as the prime minister who completed the modernisation of his country, turning it into a Spanish-style success? Or as the one who led his country into the abyss of Grexit, potentially turning it into a populist paradise like Venezuela, just without the oil? Whatever he does, he will get into trouble with major parts of his own power base, either with the pro-euro realists who are in line with Greek public opinion or with the antiEuropean hardline communists who make up some 30% of Syriza.

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Why Greece May Be the New Lehman - Bill Emmott - POLITICO Magazine

Why Greece May Be the New Lehman - Bill Emmott - POLITICO Magazine

Greek default? Wall Street says don't risk it , Ben White

Some top executives on Wall Street argue that it would be much worse for creditors to cave in to demands for more lenient terms from Greek’s anti-austerity political leaders. Because that would mean other debtor nations would also soon clamor for relief. Better to rip the bandage off and put an end to the charade that Greece will ever pay back all its loans.

“In 2012, if Greece blew up, it would have posed serious systemic risk,” said one Wall Street chief executive who declined to be identified by name. “But now, the private sector has nowhere near what anyone would dream of calling systemic exposure. In fact, any capitulation by creditors of any significant magnitude would be the real source of systemic risk.”

Why Greece May Be the New Lehman - Bill Emmott - POLITICO Magazine

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

The 'Grexit' Issue and the Problem of Free Trade | Stratfor

"...it has become increasingly difficult for Greece to meet its payments. If Greece doesn't meet these payments, the IMF and European institutions have said they will not extend any more loans to Greece. Greece must make a calculation. If it pays the loans on time and receives additional funding, will it be better off than not paying the loans and being cut off from more?"

...

"...the real issue: Greece, and other countries, cannot exist as normal, coherent states under these circumstances, and in European history, long-term economic dysfunction tends to lead to political extremism and instability."

Friday, April 17, 2015

Greece: Default or Grexit? | naked capitalism

Greece: Default or Grexit? | naked capitalism

FTAlfaville : About that ELA rulebook (all two pages)

Friday, April 10, 2015

Martin Sandbu : What does Syriza want? - FT.com

Free Lunch: What does Syriza want? - FT.com

The deep strategic question is whether Syriza actually thinks its political and economic goals can be achieved within the euro, or whether it's really lining things up to leave without taking too much blame.

Felix Salmon : "Greece's debt crisis: How did we get here?" | Fusion

Greece's debt crisis: How did we get here? | Fusion

Thursday, April 9, 2015

China Seeks Gateway to Europe with Greek Port - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Greece’s reparations demand could bring the euro crisis to a head | The World

In Berlin (where I’m writing from), the Syriza government led by Alexis Tsipras is felt to be chaotic, unreliable, divided and unserious. Raising the issue of reparations at this juncture merely confirms that impression.

...

this may provide some emotional satisfaction to Greece, a country that did indeed suffer terribly during the war – and that is now under enormous economic strain. But it is not an intelligent negotiating strategy. Any further package of loans to Greece will have to go through the German Bundestag.

How Thucydides helps explain Greece’s problems with Germany - The Washington Post

How Thucydides helps explain Greece’s problems with Germany - The Washington Post

or

The Melian Dilemma: Varoufakis, Thucydides and game theory

Monday, April 6, 2015

Trilemmas in capital flows, and domestic and international order | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Saturday, April 4, 2015

Ben Bernanke: "Germany's trade surplus is a problem" | Brookings Institution

Germany's trade surplus is a problem | Brookings Institution

Germany’s trade surplus is a problem. Several other members of the euro zone are in deep recession, with high unemployment and with no “fiscal space” (meaning that their fiscal situations don’t allow them to raise spending or cut taxes as a way of stimulating domestic demand).

why people keep electing idiots | Dean Burnett | Science | The Guardian

Democracy v Psychology: why people keep electing idiots | Dean Burnett | Science | The Guardian

Friday, April 3, 2015

Greece's Syriza Confronts Reality - Bloomberg View

...Greece has had to accept a continuation of the current bailout program, with the creditors periodically reviewing the progress of reforms. Tsipras entered the negotiation unable to walk away from the table, and that quickly eroded his bargaining power. That was the first reality check.

Όλη η αντιμνημονιακή απάτη στηρίχτηκε στην «επιβολή της λιτότητας». Κάποιοι μας «επέβαλαν» να γίνουμε φτωχοί. Είχαμε λεφτά αλλά μας τα παίρνουν, μας επιβάλλουν «φτωχοποίηση» του λαού. Ακόμη κι όταν δεν μιλάμε για «κατακτητές» και «αποικίες χρέους», λέμε λιτότητα για τη «μείωση των ελλειμμάτων». Όχι, για να πληρώσουμε το κόστος του Δημοσίου. Όχι για να πληρώσουμε τα 30 εκ. που δίνει το κράτος σήμερα σε μια ελλειμματική, χρεοκοπημένη, που έχει δανειστεί εκατοντάδες εκατομμύρια, εταιρεία για να παράγει ζάχαρη κρατική με διπλάσιο κόστος απ’ ό,τι την πουλάει. Αφηρημένες λέξεις που κρύβουν την πρακτική αλήθεια.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015