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Sunday, May 31, 2015

Alexis Tsipras’ article in Le Monde newspaper: Europe at crossroads

via The Guardian : "Alexis Tsipras lambasts 'absurd proposals' for Greece debt-deal failure"
“It is a lie that there is any optimism. There is no optimism. What the so-called optimism is about is stopping panic-stricken Greeks withdrawing deposits from banks,” said one well-placed source with access to high-level policymakers."

Prime Minister of Greece | Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ article in Le Monde newspaper: Europe at crossroads

Friday, May 29, 2015

John Nash's Game Theory and Greece - Bloomberg View

John Nash's Game Theory and Greece - Bloomberg View

Assessing the Greek drama through the lens of game theory explains why the crisis -- and the question of Greece's continued euro-zone membership -- are no closer to being resolved. ApplyingNash's theory shows that the best we can realistically expect is yet another attempt to postpone painful decisions. But even this inadequate outcome is proving increasingly difficult to deliver, and if it materializes, the resulting delay will lead to an even more difficult situation, unless the players decide to stop their uncooperative game very soon.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | The Coming Greek Default: How Minister Varoufakis Thinks

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | The Coming Greek Default: How Minister Varoufakis Thinks

my own thoughts on a possible Greek default—namely, that Greek politicians do not have the stomach for the type of structural reforms that Eastern Europe implemented to avert disaster. The Emergency Economic Summit for Greece corroborated this view.

Friday, May 22, 2015

Tsipras gets no leeway in Riga

Tsipras gets no leeway in Riga

The Greek government states that a cash-for-reforms deal with the EU and IMF can be finalized in the next 10 days but the other side is much less optimistic and there was no sign of a breakthrough at the EU summit in Riga which Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had been pinning some hope on.
Tsipras talked with Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Francois Hollande last night but got little more than a pointed reminder than he needs to do more to secure funds to avoid default.
German and French statements focused on the immediate need to agree the kind of economic reforms, promised by Tsipras’s conservative predecessors, which are a condition for the EU, European Central Bank and IMF to unlock more cash. Officials say the government could otherwise run out of money in a couple of weeks.
The only thing that would have broken the logjam in Riga would have been a major concession by Tsipras but it appears he is sticking to his “red lines” on labour deregulation and pension reforms. Today, he will talk with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker who has given Greece a somewhat more sympathetic ear.
A Greek government spokesman insisted a deal could be done in 10 days and that Greece would meet all its payments in June and would thereafter be eligible for inclusion in the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme. That remains to be seen.

Greece says a deal is close — but....

Thursday, May 21, 2015

A Finance Minister Fit for a Greek Tragedy? - NYTimes.com

A Finance Minister Fit for a Greek Tragedy? - NYTimes.com

"When he began his career as an academic at the University of Essex, he said, his slogan became “subvert the dominant paradigm,” "
B Being eccentric is a trait. Being purposely eccentric is a syndrome.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

The Way Out for Greece - Bloomberg View

The Way Out for Greece - Bloomberg View

This is why we take issue with suggestions that ending austerity would unleash the Greek economy, or that structural reform is less urgent because it takes too long and has too limited an impact. On the contrary, there is plenty of evidence that Greece has been unable to become more competitive and escape its economic doldrums, because it has failed to adopt the structural reforms needed to give it a sustainable 240 billion euro economy again.
Ricardo Hausmann : Austerity Is Not Greece’s Problem

in 2008 the gap between Greece's income and the knowledge content of its exports was the largest among a sample of 128 countries.

Nicholas Economides : Here's what Greece needs to fix now—commentary

Here's what Greece needs to fix now—commentary

Greece is running out of cash quickly, and should accept practically any deal to avoid bankruptcy and possible Grexit. 

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

The Nordic model towards 2030 (pdf)

www.fafo.no/images/pub/2015/20412-onepageview.pdf


GREECE: No Progress until Tsipras chooses

www.berenberg.de/uploads/tx_news/150519_Macro-news_Update_Greece.pdf

As Greece is failing to come up with credible alter As Greece is failing to come up with credible alternatives for the reforms demanded, ternatives for the reforms demanded, we expect the natives for the reforms demanded, Eurozone
and the IMF to table a “take-it-or-leave-it” proposal soon to end this exasperating back-and-forth and make the
choice clear to Greece. That would include in detail what is required to unlock the final €7.2bn instalment of the
second bail-out and under what conditions Greece could obtain the inevitable third bail-out. T

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Greece’s hot summer | Silvia Merler at Bruegel.org

Greece’s hot summer | Silvia Merler at Bruegel.org



SS. Same column, different title at BI : "Greece concocted an outrageous scheme to meet its debt obligations"



Why Syriza Will Blink by Anatole Kaletsky - Project Syndicate

Why Syriza Will Blink by Anatole Kaletsky - Project Syndicate

the European authorities have a third option in the event of a Greek default. Instead of forcing a “Grexit,” the EU could trap Greece inside the eurozone and starve it of money, then simply sit back and watch the Tsipras government’s domestic political support collapse.
.... 

ΠΓ του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ: Οι κόκκινες γραμμές της κυβέρνησης είναι και κόκκινες γραμμές του ελληνικού λαού :: left.gr

ΠΓ του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ: Οι κόκκινες γραμμές της κυβέρνησης είναι και κόκκινες γραμμές του ελληνικού λαού :: left.gr

A road map for Greece’s long and winding route to rescue—or ruin - Quartz

A road map for Greece’s long and winding route to rescue—or ruin - Quartz

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

How Greece Fell into the Eurozone Trap | Foreign Policy

How Greece Fell into the Eurozone Trap | Foreign Policy

when the financial crisis hit, Greece was running double-digit fiscal deficits and had accumulated debts worth nearly 130 percent of the country’s GDP. It had not addressed underlying structural problems, including spotty tax collection, business-choking regulations, and a vast, inefficient state bureaucracy. Since then, the country still has not summoned the political will to redress these issues.

Monday, May 11, 2015

Mohamed A. El-Erian : Greece Inches Closer to an Accident - Bloomberg View

Greece Inches Closer to an Accident - Bloomberg View

Greece was unable to secure a sufficiently strong statement of support from its European partners, much less the immediate infusion of funds it desperately needs.
...

Greece, the euro zone and the international monetary system need an urgent and sustained implementation of a set of meaningful policies, including action by the Greek government on internal reforms, greater debt relief from creditors and a pro-growth recasting of fiscal austerity.
Unfortunately, I continue to believe there is a very low probability this will happen. 

Hugo Dixon : Making Sense of the Options for Greece - NYTimes.com

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Greece from Postwar Orthodoxy to “Democratic Peronism” | Pseudoerasmus

via Mike Bird at BI : Yanis Varoufakis wants to break the 'unholy alliance' of oligarchs, politicians, and the media that have held Greece back



Greece from Postwar Orthodoxy to “Democratic Peronism” | Pseudoerasmus

The proximate causes of the present Greek crisis are straightforward. Although the Greek government had engaged in ‘fiscal consolidation’ during the 1990s in order to qualify for the Eurozone, upon accession it began running larger budget and current account deficits. These were financed with cheap foreign credit thanks to the lower cost of borrowing in euros. The fiscal monitoring functions of the EU’s Stability & Growth Pact were laxly enforced, but Greece also had some foreign help in cooking its books.

The Guardian view on Greece: dangerous brinkmanship | Editorial | Comment is free | The Guardian

The Guardian view on Greece: dangerous brinkmanship | Editorial | Comment is free | The Guardian

Handelsblatt poll says the majority of Germany's business executives now want Grexit - Business Insider

Handelsblatt poll says the majority of Germany's business executives now want Grexit - Business Insider

This time round, that worry [over contagion] seems to have mostly disappeared. 
A poll in March showed that this attitude is becoming commog throughout Germany  — more than half of people polled then thought Greece should leave the eurozone.


Sunday, May 3, 2015

Stephen Law on Pseudoscience | Five Books | Five Books

Stephen Law on Pseudoscience | Five Books | Five Books

Europe needs another Marshall Plan to save crisis-ravaged euro

Europe needs another Marshall Plan to save crisis-ravaged euro

 EIB could expand operations and begin lending to finance public investment. With imaginative and constructive financing, the EIB could even now undertake a mobilization of idle savings in Europe and elsewhere to spur productivity, growth and employment through public and private investment. It could also boost aggregate demand, a fancy way to say grow the overall economy.

Should Eurozone current-account surpluses be reduced? | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Should Eurozone current-account surpluses be reduced? | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Tsipras in Dreamland by Joschka Fischer - Project Syndicate

Tsipras in Dreamland by Joschka Fischer - Project Syndicate

Tsipras squandered Greece’s opportunity, because he and other Syriza leaders were unable to see beyond the horizon of their party’s origins in radical opposition activism. They did not understand – and did not want to understand – the difference between campaigning and governing. Realpolitik, in their view, was a sellout.

Saturday, May 2, 2015

Is the Podemos bubble bursting? | Open Europe

Is the Podemos bubble bursting? | Open Europe

Greece Is Stuck With the Euro, and Vice Versa - Bloomberg View

Greece Is Stuck With the Euro, and Vice Versa - Bloomberg View

Changing currencies is no small matter. It requires organization on a military scale, from both elected officials and civil servants. Neither group, to put it kindly, has shown that degree of competence. A lasting recovery would require precisely the kind of fiscal discipline and structural reforms that Tsipras is resisting.

Friday, May 1, 2015

This is the horrific consequence of Greece leaving the Euro - Business Insider

This is the horrific consequence of Greece leaving the Euro - Business Insider
Bank of America Merrill Lynch's analysts held a roundtable on the potential impact of a Greek exit from the euro. Though it is not what they seem to be expecting, they say it is now time to "start thinking what used to be unthinkable."