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Tuesday, June 30, 2015

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Turbulent Outlook for Greece

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Turbulent Outlook for Greece

Why Greeks Will Vote 'Yes' to Europe - Bloomberg View

Why Greeks Will Vote 'Yes' to Europe - Bloomberg View

Greeks, Welcome to the Soviet Union of 1991 - Bloomberg View

Greeks, Welcome to the Soviet Union of 1991 - Bloomberg View

Robert's Stochastic thoughts: Washington Post and New York Times on the Greek Cr...

Robert's Stochastic thoughts: Washington Post and New York Times on the Greek Cr...: The crisis so far. Negotiations at the Eurogroup of finance ministers between Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis and the other 18 brok...

Robert's Stochastic thoughts: Washington Post and New York Times on the Greek Cr...

Robert's Stochastic thoughts: Washington Post and New York Times on the Greek Cr...: The crisis so far. Negotiations at the Eurogroup of finance ministers between Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis and the other 18 brok...

Monday, June 29, 2015

Greece Turns from Drama to Tragedy

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Greece Turns from Drama to Tragedy
The prime minister’s moves have inflicted lasting damage to the Greek economy. The most hopeful scenario from now on is that Greek voters reject his irresponsible call for a “no” vote on the referendum and approve a return to serious negotiations with the Troika of international creditors, returning Greece to the European fold.

Thorsten Beck : "Greece – the day after: Time for a fresh start?" | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Greece – the day after: Time for a fresh start? | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

The breakdown of negotiations between Greece and the Troika comes as a shock. It is not, however, the end of the game. This column argues that the rupture can serve as a starting point for a new relationship between Greece and its creditors – an approach that does not provide fresh cash to the Greek government and does not impose specific policy reforms from outside.

Παύλος Ελευθεριάδης: Τι σημαίνει το Όχι στο δημοψήφισμα - NEWS247

Τι σημαίνει το Όχι στο δημοψήφισμα - NEWS247

Engelbert Stockhammer : "Debt, Discipline And Democracy In Europe"

Debt, Discipline And Democracy In Europe




What can we learn from Greece’s crisis? | The Fabius Maximus website

What can we learn from Greece’s crisis? | The Fabius Maximus website

Barry Eichengreen ¨Path to Grexit tragedy paved by political incompetence

Path to Grexit tragedy paved by political incompetence
The European Central Bank supported the Greek banking system with emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) right up to the very end of June. Only when Greece stopped negotiating did the Central Bank stop increasing ELA. And only then did a full-fledged bank run break out.
....
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his government should have had the courage of its convictions. If it was unwilling to accept the creditors’ final offer, then it should have stated its refusal, pure and simple. If it preferred to continue negotiating, then it should have continued negotiating. The decision to call a referendum in midstream only heightened uncertainty. It was a transparent effort to evade responsibility. It was the action of leaders more interested in retaining office than in minimizing the cost to the country of the crisis. 

Sunday, June 28, 2015

The Guardian view on Greece and the euro: no money left | Editorial | World news | The Guardian

The Guardian view on Greece and the euro: no money left | Editorial | World news | The Guardian



Larry Elliott : Greece crisis could be a Sarajevo moment for the eurozone

Karl Whelan : "ECB Decision Likely Means Greek Banks Stay Closed" — Bull Market — Medium

ECB Decision Likely Means Greek Banks Stay Closed — Bull Market — Medium

the only way the Greek banks could finance the (presumably very large) demands for withdrawals on Monday would have been to get access to additional funds from the Bank of Greece in the form of additional ELA. That will not be possible now, so most likely the banks will not open on Monday.
...
There is probably still a small window of opportunity left to keep Greece in the euro, even if the banks don’t open tomorrow. 

Greek Referendum Is More Con Than Democracy - Bloomberg View

Greek Referendum Is More Con Than Democracy - Bloomberg View

Tsipras and his party want this vote to legitimize their decision to default and exit the euro, most likely after that decision has already been made, without actually telling Greeks that this is the choice they are making. It gives further weight to my suspicion that Syriza’s erratic negotiating behavior for the last five months has been driven by a preference for default and exiting the euro they could not express, because the party had no mandate for it.

Saturday, June 27, 2015

George Tsebelis : "Αγωνία στην Αθήνα" | Foreign Affairs - Hellenic Edition

Αγωνία στην Αθήνα | Foreign Affairs - Hellenic Edition

Περίληψη: 
 
Ως αποτέλεσμα της μπερδεμένης στρατηγικής της, η Ελλάδα δεν ήταν σε θέση να κερδίσει ή να επικοινωνήσει με συμμάχους, έχασε την αξιοπιστία της, και ήγειρε ερωτήματα σχετικά με την πίστη της στην Ευρώπη. Κατά μια έννοια, η αποτυχία της χώρας αντανακλούσε ακριβώς τις αντιφατικές προτιμήσεις του ελληνικού λαού: Και να μείνουν στην ζώνη του ευρώ, και να απαλλαγούν από την λιτότητα.

Close to the threshold | The Economist

Close to the threshold | The Economist

Angry Bear » Greek Tale(s)

Angry Bear » Greek Tale(s)



"the Greek saga is one of austere budget policies imposed on the Greek government by the “troika”.



Comment: Exactly so; there 's no argument on this.

On the other hand, how dandy it would have been for a 70 yrs old pensioner who has lost 45% of his income since 2010 if the troika had assumed the financing of the Government Deficit "ad infinitum", as Yanis would say.

Greece's Choice of Disasters - Bloomberg View

Greece's Choice of Disasters - Bloomberg View

Hugo Dixon: Tsipras gambles Greece

Hugo Dixon: Tsipras gambles Greece

Thursday, June 25, 2015

IMF Would Be Other Casualty of Greek Default - Bloomberg View

IMF Would Be Other Casualty of Greek Default - Bloomberg View

Economic crisis: The global impact of a Greek default - AEI

Economic crisis: The global impact of a Greek default - AEI

Introduction
Recent economic and political developments in Greece suggest that it is only
matter of time before that country both defaults on its large public debt and imposes
capital controls. Those developments could very well pave the way for Greece’s exit
from the Euro within the next twelve months. Were that to occur, one must expect
that Greece’s economic and political crisis will deepen, which could lead to that
country becoming a failed state.  

Greek debt crisis: the 20 key moments | Business | The Guardian

Greek debt crisis: the 20 key moments | Business | The Guardian

Greece and the politics of brinksmanship | Brookings Institution

Greece and the politics of brinksmanship | Brookings Institution

The Greek government is in the middle of very intense negotiations for a deal with its European creditors and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for additional funding in exchange for agreed policy steps by Greece. Further, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will need to successfully sell any compromise to his parliament, where the greatest problems will come from within his own Syriza Party. Whatever the ultimate outcome, the process of getting to this stage highlights several interesting political and geopolitical points of wider applicability.

Saturday, June 20, 2015

Nationalism vs. the European Union: which will win? | The Fabius Maximus website

Nationalism vs. the European Union: which will win? | The Fabius Maximus website

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Greece’s Fate: High Noon in Brussels

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Greece’s Fate: High Noon in Brussels

What will not be decided [on June 22nd] is whether Greece remains a member of the euro area. Despite all the talk recently about a Grexit, such an eventuality is not in the cards, no matter what the outcome is on Monday.
...
For all their blustering and chest-thumping defiance, Tsipras and Syriza have ensured that no good options are left from for themselves, Greece, or the euro area.  

In depth: The Greek crisis | The Economist

In depth: The Greek crisis | The Economist

The Unbearable Logic of the European Union | The National Interest

The Unbearable Logic of the European Union | The National Interest

...a common currency implies that the EU member states have roughly the same rates of growth, inflation and competitiveness or must adjust accordingly.

Thursday, June 18, 2015

In Eurozone, Growing Support for a Greek Exit - The New York Times

In Eurozone, Growing Support for a Greek Exit - The New York Times

Why a Greece Budget Deal With the IMF and Eurozone Is So Hard - US News

Why a Greece Budget Deal With the IMF and Eurozone Is So Hard - US News

If some financial assistance is granted, it will buy a few more weeks to keep the negotiations alive, but it will not solve Greece's structural problems. This is a country without a viable business model, where 40 percent of its exports today are raw materials, and there is no solid and technologically advanced manufacturing base. It is difficult to understand what will generate economic growth in the coming years unless profound changes in the economy and society take place. 

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

What If Greece Just Disappeared? - Bloomberg View

What If Greece Just Disappeared? - Bloomberg View

One morning we'd wake up and find no Greek news on our website of choice, no links to Greek stories on Twitter, no mention of Greece in European Union documents or Eurostat reports. A look at the map would reveal a country called Hellas still jutting into the Mediterranean to the south of Bulgaria, Macedonia and Albania. It would be just another Balkan country.

Friday, June 12, 2015

Berenberg : Greece: 12 June

www.berenberg.de/uploads/tx_news/150612_Greece.pdf

What Greece needs. The chart also spells out the only way to fix Greece. Athens needs to return to policies similar
to those that are working in Spain. It needs a flexible labour market, an affordable pension system, a simple tax
system and a public sector that throws less rather than more obstacles in the way of private businesses. By and
large, these are the reforms that creditors are insisting on. These are the reforms that could end the Tsipras
recession. Let’s hope that, after his dangerous brinkmanship over the last few days, Tsipras learns his lesson fast. 

Greece, a Financial Zombie State - NYTimes.com

Greece, a Financial Zombie State - NYTimes.com

Greece Crisis: What Happens if There's No Debt Deal - Bloomberg Business

Greece Crisis: What Happens if There's No Debt Deal - Bloomberg Business

Finance Minister Schäuble and Merkel Tussle Over Grexit - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Finance Minister Schäuble and Merkel Tussle Over Grexit - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble appears to have given up hope of a satisfactory outcome to the Greek crisis. Unlike the chancellor, he is willing to cut the rope on Athens. But will he dare to dig in his heels and defy Merkel?

Non-meeting of minds | The Economist

Non-meeting of minds | The Economist

 After almost four months of snail-paced talks, it looks as if the creditors may now call Greece’s bluff.

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Holger Schmieding, berenberg: GREECE UPDATE: THE POLITICAL OPTIONS

www.berenberg.de/uploads/tx_news/150608_Macro-news_Greece.pdf

Our long-held view remains:  30% risk of Grexit; 70% probability that Greece will stay in the euro, possibly after
some serious political turmoil in the meantime.  

Monday, June 8, 2015

Mohamed El-Erian : "Subplots Cloud Greek Drama"

Subplots Cloud Greek Drama - Bloomberg View

Facing an intensifying trust deficit and worsening coordination failures, the leading actors -- the region's political leaders -- increasingly risk being relegated to secondary roles. Meanwhile, the ensemble in this drama -- citizens subjected to a protracted and suffocating economic and financial crisis -- is increasingly taking on more of the decision-making role on the ground. The more this occurs, the greater the probability that a new and very different storyline will impose itself -- one that focuses on the uncoordinated, disorderly and uncontrolled exit of Greece from the euro zone.

Friday, June 5, 2015

Greece: Seeking a way forward | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Greece: Seeking a way forward | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Greece seems to be on the verge of an agreement that would release much needed funds. This column argues that an agreement on completion of the second programme will not restore confidence, nor will it resolve the deep economic, financial and political uncertainties that confront Greece today. The focus should swiftly shift to the design of an efficient, realistic and truly reforming new programme.

Carsten Brzeski: Eurozone: Final deadline postponed again

Merkelnomics: Eurozone: Final deadline postponed again

The Greek government yesterday bought some new time by officially requesting a bundling of this month’s IMF payments. A move which shows how serious Greece’s financial situation is but also how stalemated the negotiations are. 

Greece would likely suffer from leaving the eurozone, but would Europe? Some aren't worried - Canadian Business - Your Source For Business News

Greece would likely suffer from leaving the eurozone, but would Europe? Some aren't worried - Canadian Business - Your Source For Business News